Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Collapse Risk

Developing StoryLast updated JUN 10
SUMMARY

Iceland is considering the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a national security risk as of June 10, 2026, highlighting growing international concern over the system's weakening. As of June 10, 2026, Finland has launched a research project to understand AMOC impacts, and Germany plans to integrate AMOC collapse into its European security policy, while the U.S. is dismantling a critical ocean observation system for monitoring Atlantic currents. New research indicates the AMOC could collapse as early as 2025, with studies projecting a slowdown of 42% to 58% by 2100, and a 50% risk of collapse this century. Scientists warn of severe consequences, including drastic temperature drops in Northern Europe and rising sea levels along the North American east coast, with AMOC observing systems reportedly 'at the brink of collapse' due to underfunding.

Timeline

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June 2026 — 4 developments

  1. Iceland is considering the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a national security risk.

    Iceland is considering the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a national security risk. Switzerland is also noted as being unprepared for such an event, with the scenario not included in federal climate assessments. These developments highlight ongoing concerns about the AMOC's weakening and its potential global impacts.

  2. Finland has launched a new research project to better understand the impacts of AMOC deterioration and prepare for them.

    Finland has launched a new research project to better understand the impacts of AMOC deterioration and prepare for them. This initiative aims to update national risk assessments and climate adaptation strategies in response to growing concerns about AMOC instability.

  3. The U.S. is dismantling a critical ocean observation system for monitoring Atlantic currents, includ…

    The U.S. is dismantling a critical ocean observation system for monitoring Atlantic currents, including the AMOC, despite scientists' warnings of its potential collapse. Recent studies suggest the AMOC could weaken by approximately 50% by 2100, leading to severe climate impacts. This action occurs as Germany plans to integrate AMOC collapse into its European security policy.

  4. Germany plans to treat the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a European security issue in its climate risk assessments.

    Germany plans to treat the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a European security issue in its climate risk assessments. This reclassification highlights the growing urgency and perceived impact of AMOC's weakening, with calls to upgrade AMOC monitoring to critical infrastructure.

May 2026 — 5 developments

  1. New research indicates the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could collapse as early as 2025, with studies projecting a slowdown of 42% to 58% by 2100.

    New research indicates the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could collapse as early as 2025, with studies projecting a slowdown of 42% to 58% by 2100. Scientists warn that a strengthening of the Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation may be a precursor to AMOC shutdown.

  2. New research indicates the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken by as much as 51% by 2100, a rate significantly higher than previous projections.

    New research indicates the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken by as much as 51% by 2100, a rate significantly higher than previous projections. Scientists have identified systematic errors in climate models that underestimate this weakening, and a collapse could turn the Southern Ocean into a carbon source, adding 0.2°C to global warming.

  3. AMOC observing systems are reportedly 'at the brink of collapse' due to underfunding, risking continuous data collection needed for climate projections.

    AMOC observing systems are reportedly 'at the brink of collapse' due to underfunding, risking continuous data collection needed for climate projections. A new study simulating an AMOC shutdown suggests it could trigger a substantial release of stored ocean carbon, potentially adding to global warming. Additionally, new modeling indicates that a strengthening of the Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation may be a symptom of AMOC weakening.

  4. Researchers have proposed building a dam across the Bering Strait as a potential measure to slow the…

    Researchers have proposed building a dam across the Bering Strait as a potential measure to slow the effects of climate change on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This proposal comes amid warnings that the system may be heading toward collapse.

  5. New research indicates a 50% risk of the AMOC collapsing this century, a substantial increase from p…

    New research indicates a 50% risk of the AMOC collapsing this century, a substantial increase from previous estimates, with some studies showing a 10% slowdown since the early 2000s. Iceland's Climate Council has urged dramatically scaled-up emissions cuts in response to mounting evidence of AMOC weakening and potential collapse.

April 2026 — 1 developments

  1. A new study published in *Science Advances* indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circu…

    A new study published in *Science Advances* indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial system for global climate regulation, is significantly closer to collapse than previously thought. The research estimates a potential weakening of 43% to 59% by the end of the century, with a tipping point possibly occurring by mid-century, after which collapse would be irreversible. The potential consequences of an AMOC collapse are severe, including drastic temperature drops in Northern Europe, extreme droughts in Southern Europe, rising sea levels along the North American east coast, and disruption of global food webs. The findings have generated widespread concern and reporting across various news outlets.

January 2025 — 1 developments

  1. An international consortium of scientists releases a report detailing the latest observational data and model projections for the AMOC.

    An international consortium of scientists releases a report detailing the latest observational data and model projections for the AMOC. The report highlights an accelerating trend of weakening and increased variability, reinforcing concerns about its stability and potential for abrupt shifts.

May 2024 — 1 developments

  1. A recent study links the 'cold blob' in the North Atlantic to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a critical heat-distributing system.

    A recent study links the 'cold blob' in the North Atlantic to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a critical heat-distributing system. This phenomenon, exacerbated by freshwater influx from melting ice sheets, raises concerns about a potential tipping point that could lead to catastrophic climate shifts, with some models suggesting it could be crossed around mid-century.

February 2024 — 2 developments

  1. Iceland has declared the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) a national security concern and an existential threat.

    Iceland has declared the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) a national security concern and an existential threat. This declaration highlights the growing recognition of the severe consequences associated with the AMOC's weakening, including extreme cold in Northern Europe and increased drought in Southern Europe.

  2. A new study published in Science Advances suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could collapse as early as 2025.

    A new study published in Science Advances suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could collapse as early as 2025. Researchers developed a new method to predict the collapse by analyzing temperature data in the South Atlantic, identifying a 'fingerprint' that indicates the AMOC is heading towards a tipping point.

January 2024 — 1 developments

  1. New research utilizing advanced climate models suggests that the AMOC could be closer to a tipping p…

    New research utilizing advanced climate models suggests that the AMOC could be closer to a tipping point than previously understood, with potential collapse occurring as early as 2050. This study emphasizes the non-linear nature of climate system responses and the potential for abrupt changes.

January 2023 — 1 developments

  1. Further modeling studies indicate a significant probability of AMOC weakening or collapse this century under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

    Further modeling studies indicate a significant probability of AMOC weakening or collapse this century under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. These simulations refine previous estimates and underscore the urgency of climate mitigation efforts to prevent potentially catastrophic impacts.

January 2022 — 1 developments

  1. A paleoceanographic reconstruction suggests that the AMOC may have been in a relatively stable state…

    A paleoceanographic reconstruction suggests that the AMOC may have been in a relatively stable state for the past 10,000 years, but that current warming trends could push it towards a tipping point. This long-term perspective highlights the unprecedented nature of current climate change impacts on this critical ocean current system.

August 2021 — 1 developments

  1. A study published in *Nature Climate Change* by Niklas Boers presents observation-based early-warning signals for an AMOC collapse.

    A study published in *Nature Climate Change* by Niklas Boers presents observation-based early-warning signals for an AMOC collapse. While the study suggests the possibility of an imminent shutdown, other scientists caution that direct deep-ocean observations do not strongly support claims of an immediate collapse, emphasizing the need for continued direct monitoring.

January 2021 — 1 developments

  1. Researchers identify early warning signs of a potential tipping point for the AMOC.

    Researchers identify early warning signs of a potential tipping point for the AMOC. Scientists spot these warning signs, indicating that the system may be approaching a critical threshold where a collapse could become inevitable, prompting increased scientific attention and concern.

January 2020 — 1 developments

  1. A study published in *Science Advances* finds no significant change in the AMOC circulation compared…

    A study published in *Science Advances* finds no significant change in the AMOC circulation compared to the 1990s, despite substantial changes occurring across the North Atlantic during the same period. This finding adds to the complex and sometimes contradictory picture emerging from AMOC research, indicating that direct measurements may not always align with broader climate indicators.

January 2019 — 1 developments

  1. A study by NCEI researchers highlights the resilience of the Gulf Stream, a component of the AMOC, despite a general slowdown observed in the AMOC.

    A study by NCEI researchers highlights the resilience of the Gulf Stream, a component of the AMOC, despite a general slowdown observed in the AMOC. This research indicates that while the overall circulation may be weakening, certain parts might exhibit more stability, adding nuance to the understanding of the system's dynamics.

January 2015 — 1 developments

  1. Another statistical analysis interprets a cold pattern in temperature records as a sign of AMOC weakening.

    Another statistical analysis interprets a cold pattern in temperature records as a sign of AMOC weakening. Research also suggests that as of this year, the AMOC was weaker than before the Industrial Revolution, though debate continues over the causes and extent of this weakening, highlighting ongoing scientific inquiry.

January 2010 — 1 developments

  1. A statistical analysis suggests that the AMOC has been weakening since the late 1930s, with an abrupt shift in a North-Atlantic overturning cell observed around 1970.

    A statistical analysis suggests that the AMOC has been weakening since the late 1930s, with an abrupt shift in a North-Atlantic overturning cell observed around 1970. This finding contributes to the growing body of evidence indicating a potential decline in the AMOC's strength over recent decades, raising early concerns about its long-term stability.

January 2004 — 1 developments

  1. Scientists begin to closely monitor the AMOC, with direct measurements of its strength becoming available from this year onwards.

    Scientists begin to closely monitor the AMOC, with direct measurements of its strength becoming available from this year onwards. This period marks an increase in scientific focus on the AMOC's stability and potential weakening due to climate change. Despite early monitoring, significant uncertainties remain regarding the precise behavior and future of the circulation.